Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 1.111885 1.298099 1.505528 1.753690 2.042532 2.368161 2.763236
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.802043 1.045809 1.348147 1.750613 2.272491 2.926721 3.810043
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.643097 0.906942 1.260063 1.767074 2.476745 3.435695 4.832086
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.514652 0.773666 1.142474 1.705644 2.544485 3.749201 5.614576
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.467624 0.742756 1.155990 1.821381 2.866962 4.449404 7.032563
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.393042 0.655923 1.070118 1.769576 2.922713 4.751850 7.882449
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.332409 0.580368 0.988514 1.708391 2.948326 5.001242 8.669902
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.284932 0.518737 0.919489 1.655369 2.975308 5.249027 9.477889
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.258899 0.490103 0.901644 1.686249 3.147763 5.760012 10.802683
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.247863 0.486738 0.927271 1.797292 3.476398 6.583280 12.793835
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.230600 0.468917 0.923490 1.851855 3.704979 7.248530 14.570873
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.211971 0.445636 0.905908 1.876484 3.877172 7.824801 16.244276
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.191032 0.415380 0.871915 1.866278 3.983711 8.296231 17.792658
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.172609 0.387915 0.840223 1.857097 4.092429 8.788396 19.457551
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.158784 0.368345 0.822261 1.874289 4.258613 9.418852 21.499969
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.140083 0.335120 0.770302 1.809139 4.234328 9.636581 22.657588
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.137299 0.338240 0.799456 1.931862 4.651127 10.877098 26.304975
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.122623 0.310923 0.755296 1.876930 4.645971 11.159118 27.743432
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.109080 0.284448 0.709630 1.812051 4.607904 11.358567 29.007671
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.097610 0.261574 0.669678 1.755828 4.583414 11.586573 30.371660
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.092078 0.253331 0.664988 1.788572 4.788381 12.402630 33.338714
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.091118 0.257151 0.691514 1.906319 5.229721 13.867564 38.192608
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.087280 0.252558 0.695467 1.964175 5.519130 14.976169 42.240313